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ny_quantТолько сливки.
McKinsey:
Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today. To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.
The transition could result in a gain of about 200 million and a loss of about 185 million direct and indirect jobs globally by 2050.
Our estimates exceed to a meaningful degree the $3 trillion to $4.5 trillion of annual spending for the net-zero transition that others have estimated.
Deloitte:
Over the past 50 years the US has suffered a total of $1.4 trillion dollars due to weather, climate and water hazards.
In 2021 alone there were 20 separate billion dollar weather and climate disasters in the US.
With average warming of 3°C by century end, failing to take sufficient action could result in economic losses to the US of $14.5 trillion in present-value dollars over the next 50 years.
Wood MacKenzie:
Our analysis suggests that much of the lasting economic benefits will materialise beyond our forecast horizon of 2050. (!!!)
Collating third-party results on climate damage impacts, we estimate that avoiding a higher temperature increase could boost global GDP, on aggregate, by 1.6% in 2050. At the same time, however, the actions required to successfully mitigate global warming to 1.5°C could knock 3.6% off GDP in 2050.
Все тут грамотные, цифры говорят сами за себя, анализировать тут в общем нечего. Если это не коллективное безумие, то я не знаю что.
McKinsey:
Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today. To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.
The transition could result in a gain of about 200 million and a loss of about 185 million direct and indirect jobs globally by 2050.
Our estimates exceed to a meaningful degree the $3 trillion to $4.5 trillion of annual spending for the net-zero transition that others have estimated.
Deloitte:
Over the past 50 years the US has suffered a total of $1.4 trillion dollars due to weather, climate and water hazards.
In 2021 alone there were 20 separate billion dollar weather and climate disasters in the US.
With average warming of 3°C by century end, failing to take sufficient action could result in economic losses to the US of $14.5 trillion in present-value dollars over the next 50 years.
Wood MacKenzie:
Our analysis suggests that much of the lasting economic benefits will materialise beyond our forecast horizon of 2050. (!!!)
Collating third-party results on climate damage impacts, we estimate that avoiding a higher temperature increase could boost global GDP, on aggregate, by 1.6% in 2050. At the same time, however, the actions required to successfully mitigate global warming to 1.5°C could knock 3.6% off GDP in 2050.
Все тут грамотные, цифры говорят сами за себя, анализировать тут в общем нечего. Если это не коллективное безумие, то я не знаю что.
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no subject
Date: 2022-01-31 10:11 pm (UTC)нет, это не мусор. это было мое краткое изложение мыслей известного специалиста в этой области. линк:
https://judithcurry.com/2022/01/23/crossing-or-not-the-1-5-and-2-0oc-thresholds/
Volcanoes
The instrumental period covering the past 150 years has been relatively quiet with regards to volcanic eruptions, and thus it is tempting to ascribe potential volcanism a minor role in future climate projections. However over the past two millennia, there have been periods with considerably stronger volcanic activity. Clusters of strong tropical eruptions have contributed to sustained cold periods such as the Little Ice Age.
Explosive volcanoes are omitted from scenarios used for future climate projections, because they are unpredictable. Due to the direct radiative effect of volcanic aerosol particles that reach the stratosphere, large volcanic eruptions lead to an overall decrease of global mean surface temperature, which can extend to multi-decadal or even century timescales in the case of clusters of large volcanic eruptions. (see IPCC AR6 Cross-chapter Box 4.1)
Explosive volcanic eruptions of the magnitude of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption or larger have occurred on average twice per century throughout the past 2500 years. (Sigl et al., 2015). About 8 extremely explosive volcanic eruptions (more than 5 times stronger than Pinatubo) occurred during this period. The largest of these are Samalas in 1257 and Tambora in 1815, the latter resulting in “the year without a summer” with harvest failures across the Northern Hemisphere (Raible et al., 2016). It has been estimated that a Samalas-type eruption may occur 1-2 times per millennium on average.
Given the unpredictability of individual eruptions, the CMIP5/CMIP6 climate model simulations either specify future volcanic forcing as zero or a constant background value (Eyring 2016). The background value used in the CMIP6 simulations has been estimated from the historical record 1850. Background estimates of volcanic cooling determined from climate models range from 0.1oC (Bethke et al. 2017) to 0.27oC (Fyfe et al. 2021), the differences arising from model structural differences.
no subject
Date: 2022-01-31 10:40 pm (UTC)https://curry.eas.gatech.edu/onlinepapers.html
Действительно, возможные будущие кластеры извержений вулканов не учитываются в прогнозах, вот только никто этих кластеров не видел. По среднему, как она цитирует, два извержения масштаба Пинатубо за век, и их след исчезает из наблюдений за несколько лет.
Модели может и в самом деле недооценивают влияние вулканов, но это не главная проблема, а скорее поправка второго порядка малости, если не третьего. Собс-но, последняя фраза в вашей цитате ровно это и говорит.