ny_quant

Don't fell too bad looking at your P&L: Goldman lost $500MM in Q4 (down from a $1.25BN profit in Q4 2020) trading public equities

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 18, 2022

Напомню, что в 4 квартале прошлого года S&P500 вырос на 11%.

Hedge funds broadly gained 8.4% last year through November, according to eVestment, which found that multistrategy funds has risen 8.3% and macro funds returned 1.2%

Бу-га-га. А вообще заметка о том, что флагманский фонд D.E. Shaw, probably the largest quantitative fund after you know who, Composite Fund rose 18.5% on the year. Короче, в этом году нет никакого позора в том, чтобы отстать от индекса на 10%.

Приведу довольно длинную цитату чтобы был понятен контекст.

If it makes you uncomfortable to conceptualize of the equity market as a casino, or as a forum for humanity to trade ownership stakes in make-believe legal entities called “corporations,” and if you shudder at the extent to which markets can no longer be accurately described as a mechanism for price discovery thanks to central banks’ heavy-handed intervention, then just think of the stock market as a television anchor talking to BofA’s Savita Subramanian. Because really, that’s pretty accurate on most days.

“What is the ‘stock market,’ dad?” “Well, son, I’m glad you asked. The stock market is a conversation between people on television and a nice lady named Savita Subramanian.”

I’m just trying to elicit some chuckles. The daily, boilerplate commentary actually does serve a purpose. And I’ll tell you what that purpose is.

One of the most important lessons I’ve learned over the past two decades (give or take) is that while you can safely lose track of the market narrative for a day or two, failing to read the boilerplate commentary for any longer than that risks falling out of the loop.

Once you’re out of the loop, you risk losing track not just of the generic, running narrative as told by the punditry, but of the market zeitgeist itself. That can cost you money.

Это мне живо напомнило время когда я работал по 12 часов в день (с 8 до 8) в разгар финансового кризиса в одном (вернее в двух, из одного я успел вовремя свалить) инвестиционном банке, плюс час до и с работы. Все силы и энергия уходили в работу. Читать и тем более слушать что там такое несут по ТВ пандиты, времени и энергии не было. В итоге я потерял много денег.

Пишет Виктор Хагани, один из соучастников печально знаменитого LTCM.

Negative Interest Rates and the Perpetuity Paradox