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[ny_quant]

the US stock market capitalization currently represents 61% of the global stock market capitalization, despite the fact that US GDP is only 23% of global GDP.

This chart shows the value of US equities held by foreign entities. It’s up to over $12 trillion:



Here’s a long-term chart of net international investment position as a percentage of GDP:

Comments

[ny-quant.livejournal.com]

MAs don't really matter and "support levels" are no more than figments of imagination of people who wish to be technical analysts. Just think: if the market fell thru the "support level", in what sense was it a "support level"?

So far SPY is only 10% of the top, a mere correction. In Mar-20, it lost a third. That was a real crash. 10% corrections are not that rare. Who knows, it may grow into a real crash but it is not there just yet.

[just-one-of.livejournal.com]

Bear market definition: when the market is down 20% for at least a two-month period.

Russell 2000(Small-cap) уже.
Nasdaq - осталось упасть еще на 6%.

Шапка сегодня на маркет странице Reuters : Bears at the gate.

[ny-quant.livejournal.com]

Of course it is at the gate but not thru the gate just yet. And, as you remember from Mar-20, it can run away in a few days.

[just-one-of.livejournal.com]

>And, as you remember from Mar-20, it can run away in a few days.

Совсем Другое Дело !

On 12 March, the U.S. Fed took almost unprecedented action to, in its words, "address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak".[64] The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that it would offer $1.5 trillion in repurchase agreements in U.S. Treasury securities to smooth the functioning of the short-term market that banks use to lend to each other. The New York Fed further announced that it would buy $60 billion of Treasury bonds over the next month to keep the bond market functioning. The seizing up of markets was a critical step in the subprime mortgage crisis that led to the financial crisis of 2007–08 and the Fed appeared to want to act quickly.[65] On 15 March, as well as dropping interest rates, announced it would buy at least $500 billion in Treasures and at least $200 billion in government-backed mortgage securities over the next few months.[32] On 16 March, as the stock market plunged, bond prices jumped according to their historical inverse relationship.[66]

On 17 March, the Fed announced that they would use the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF). The CPFF was first used in the 2007–08 financial crisis to buy about $350 billion of commercial paper (CP), thereby increasing the amount of cash in the CP market, used by business to pay bills and other short-term demands. CP most directly affects the mortgage and auto loan markets, as well as credit to small and medium-sized businesses. The U.S. Treasury Department authorized $10 billion to backstop any losses incurred by the Fed using the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund. U.S. stock markets rallied on the news.[67][68]

On 19 March, the European Central Bank announced a 750 billion euro ($820 billion) bond-buying program, named the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, to mitigate market turmoil. Unlike in previous ECB asset-purchases, Greek government bonds were included. Markets reacted positively, with the yield on Italian government bonds dropping to 1.542% from 2.5% the day before.[69][70]

In the week of 23 March, investors attracted by Fed guarantees of market liquidity and comparatively high bond yields rushed into the U.S. corporate debt market.[71][72] Investment-grade firms issued $73 billion in debt, about 21% more than the previous weekly record. Many U.S. firms sold debt in an attempt to build cash reserves in anticipation of future financial strain.[73]

Following passage of the U.S. Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, the Fed announced on 9 April that it would buy up to $2.3 trillion in debt from the U.S. market, including from so-called "fallen angels," companies that were downgraded from investment-grade to junk during the chaos of March.[79] The announcement sparked a rally in junk bond exchange-traded funds, as well as individual junk bonds.[80] The New York Times reported on 19 April that U.S. corporations had drawn more than $200 billion from existing credit lines during the COVID-19 crisis, far more than had been extended in the 2008 crisis.[81]

[ny-quant.livejournal.com]

Да, в этом сезоне фед уже не будет поддерживать рынок. Так что может получиться совсем иначе.