I am not insisting on the specific numbers. Just the point that we cannot assess quality of our predictions simply based on the fact that the outcome turned out to be ok (actually it is not ok, but not as bad as it could be).
I am somewhere between you and Yakov in that respect. I don't think it is ok because this can open a Pandora's box for future elections, but I am not too worried locally, at this point. In fact, I've saying that Trump would leave all along, once the results became clear.
As far as the counterfactuals are concerned, you need to come up with your own model for the probability of those event and take it into account when assessing your predictions. Personally, I feel that those were quite plausible scenarios.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2020-12-09 07:20 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-12-09 07:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-12-09 07:44 pm (UTC)As far as the counterfactuals are concerned, you need to come up with your own model for the probability of those event and take it into account when assessing your predictions. Personally, I feel that those were quite plausible scenarios.