Date: 2020-12-09 07:36 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ny-quant.livejournal.com
For me, it actually *is* ok. While you have a point above, I wouldn't know how to base my assessment on counter-factuals.

Date: 2020-12-09 07:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] misha-b.livejournal.com
I am somewhere between you and Yakov in that respect. I don't think it is ok because this can open a Pandora's box for future elections, but I am not too worried locally, at this point. In fact, I've saying that Trump would leave all along, once the results became clear.

As far as the counterfactuals are concerned, you need to come up with your own model for the probability of those event and take it into account when assessing your predictions. Personally, I feel that those were quite plausible scenarios.

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