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[ny_quant]

Добавление ко вчерашнему:



the data in Figure 2 shows a decrease in infection rates after countries eased national lockdowns with >99% statistical significance""

Comments

[ny-quant.livejournal.com]

// lockdowns are pretty much guaranteed to decrease the spread

That's a false narrative. Lockdown is not one measure it's a complex of measures. Some are effective some may be not. The point is that relaxing of ineffective measures is a win-win.

// I feel you are thinking too much in liberal/conservative terms.

Maybe but I disagree.

// We just need to look at the data and combine it with what we know to come to reasonable conclusions.

This is exactly the goal of the exercise. And then some people reject the reasonable conclusions because they contradict their priors or political views.

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

> That's a false narrative. Lockdown is not one measure it's a complex of measures. Some are effective some may be not.

You should think about lockdowns as a complex of measures designed to decrease physical contact. Some of them are effective, some are not. Lockdown as a whole slows the viral spread.

> The point is that relaxing of ineffective measures is a win-win.

Sure. Even effective measures may have to be relaxed if the cost of maintaining them is too high.

> And then some people reject the reasonable conclusions because they contradict their priors or political views.

Perhaps. Personally I don't have any political views about the virus. My only prior is what we know from physics, biology and mathematics.

[ny-quant.livejournal.com]

// Lockdown as a whole slows the viral spread.

Correct but it doesn't follow that lockdowns as implemented are the optimal way to do it. In fact, the data suggests that the implementation was excessively strict.

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

Actually, I would like to see some experimentation. It is hard to judge what is the right level of strictness without reference points.