I do not pretend to know what will happen in two years. Biden is old and rather unpopular at the moment. But Trump is significantly more unpopular, and if he splits the Republican votes, the Republican nominee does not stand a chance anyway.
And why Newsom? That is a completely arbitrary pick. If Biden is not in good enough health and decides not to run, the Democrats will have a primary and choose their nominee.
I think Trump's (un)popularity is fairly constant https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ and his polls are not worse than Biden's at the moment.
Newsom didn't lose to Biden in 2016. He's relatively young, handsome and maybe even has some charisma. I don't know enough about his politics. Since he's from CA, I'd be highly suspicious. But genpop maybe OK with him.
Sure, dems can have normal primaries, too. However, as we still remember from 2016, primaries don't necessarily produce the most electable candidate.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2022-11-14 09:31 pm (UTC)And why Newsom? That is a completely arbitrary pick. If Biden is not in good enough health and decides not to run, the Democrats will have a primary and choose their nominee.
no subject
Date: 2022-11-14 09:51 pm (UTC)Exactly:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
I think Trump's (un)popularity is fairly constant
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
and his polls are not worse than Biden's at the moment.
Newsom didn't lose to Biden in 2016. He's relatively young, handsome and maybe even has some charisma. I don't know enough about his politics. Since he's from CA, I'd be highly suspicious. But genpop maybe OK with him.
Sure, dems can have normal primaries, too. However, as we still remember from 2016, primaries don't necessarily produce the most electable candidate.