ny_quant

2. Then please look at the lowest TTF price as well. You will find that it was in the region of 5. Then do the maths again.

We mostly agree on 1. The problem is that almost all European governments subscribed to "RE is the way" as the solution to the problem, ignoring obvious technical issues. Shutting down nuclear is a relatively small change in comparison to suppressing FF exploration and production in Europe. One of the first links:
https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/08/12/the-end-of-fossil-fuels-which-countries-have-banned-exploration-and-extraction

The problem is of course if you are told that you will have no business beyond 2035-2040-2050 you will have to look long and hard at how the numbers are going to work during the remaining relatively short period. Add to it the difficulties with getting finance and you will see why we are in this situation. This is how "remote future" affected the present.

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1. This is really not important, but Australian gas by Indexmundi:
Hi / Lo
11.56 / 2.23 = 5.18

2. I am not so sure: in the next 28 years, you can still rip a fortune. They are ripping it now: look at the gas price and their super profits.

And even after 2050, you will probably still use gas, just less. Their is chemistry, even the fuel for the military and possibly the air industry: the carbon neutrality does not mean zero hydrocarbon use.

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1. citing myself
>>>Then please look at the lowest TTF price as well
i.e. the price in Europe
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Select 5 years, you will find the min at 3.51 on the 28/5/2020. So our worst was close to 100 times (max of 339). I hope it's clear enough why I claim our situation is massively worse.

2. Do you have any rough idea about the development cycle for a completely new gas source? From exploration to planning to implementation? The reason "they are ripping it now" is exactly because there is no competition since nothing has been in the pipeline for a long time. The future path has been set affecting the present.

Unlike morons from "just stop oil" I understand very well that we will need oil and gas in the future. This is precisely the reason why decisions to prohibit further exploration are idiotic - where will this oil come from in 2050? Clearly we don't just have fringe groups shouting loudly - we have government decisions already made. Greens are P..n's best friends. You said you didn't have time for morons - well, morons rule many countries, do you still not care?

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So just like I thought, we were talking apples and oranges, Europe in Australia. I was talking Australia. Anyway, this is not important.

What's important is - back to square one - we need to start reducing our reliance on coal and hydrocarbon. Gradually. As a side effect, less money would flow to Putin, Iran, Saudis and others who I don't like much.

I may be not best informed, but I have not heard of a country which outright banned gas exploration. Clearly not US, not Australia. Anyone, anywhere?

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>>> So just like I thought, we were talking apples and oranges, Europe in Australia. I was talking Australia. Anyway, this is not important.

Not sure I understand. I did mention UK, I did mention EU, I did mention Merkel. Clearly I was talking about Europe/EU vs AUS/US.

>>> What's important is - back to square one - we need to start reducing our reliance on coal and hydrocarbon. Gradually. As a side effect, less money would flow to Putin, Iran, Saudis and others who I don't like much.

The keyword is "gradually". Anyone with a bit of common sense would realise that we should first build up the new sources, then start cutting the old ones - if the new ones are good enough. Basically, RE should win the competition. But this is not what has been happening.

>>> I may be not best informed, but I have not heard of a country which outright banned gas exploration. Clearly not US, not Australia. Anyone, anywhere?
Have you looked at the link I provided???
https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/08/12/the-end-of-fossil-fuels-which-countries-have-banned-exploration-and-extraction

here is another one: https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/domestic-limits-to-fossil-fuel-production-and-expansion-in-the-g20/
Moron Biden limiting drilling permits, killing Keystone pipeline (see the link). Germany with a moratoria on shale gas exploration, France - the same. Yes, it's in too many places to ignore.

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Look, I am very happy to agree. 1) Gradually 2) Build replacement first, not the other way around 3) The total ban is unwise.

On the Total ban, I'm inclined to think that in those countries they just made a populist move... It's a matter of time that they get sober and revisit the decision, they will have to

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ny-quant.livejournal.com

Как-то так, да.

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British Prime Minister Truss lifts fracking ban amid energy crisis
https://justthenews.com/world/europe/british-prime-minister-truss-lifts-fracking-ban-amid-energy-crisis - 2022.09
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11192921/Liz-Truss-LIFTS-ban-fracking-despite-fears-cause-earthquakes.html

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Having agreed that the ban is a populist and unwise move, I think its consequences are still overrated by you.

On the ban list, unsurprisingly you see no major or even mid-size oil producer. France and Spain, whose annual output combined is less than 1 day of Saudis, banned the exploration after 2040 and 2042 respectively. They are not the hydrocarbons producers now, and they banned becoming so after 2040.

On US, which is a major producer indeed: you don't see a legislated ban here. You see a moratorium for leasing the federal land for the new projects. So 1) the existing projects are not affected 2) the private land is not affected and 3) a moratorium can be reversed anytime, it's not a law: come new administration, or whatever

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Partially correct wrt the US. And this is why NG is only up less than 3-fold there as of today. Still limiting exploration and drilling today will affect production in the medium term and ditching the pipeline will have long-term consequences.

Shale gas in Europe is a completely different story: there are plenty of reserves but the exploration is either prohibited or extremely limited, this is why it seems like nothing is actually happening (i.e. these are not serious producers now). The result is of course nothing to switch to in the short and medium term. And German Greens - contrary to what we expect and contrary to common sense — are not about to give up on their no-FF dream. Quick Google brought this https://m.dw.com/en/energy-crisis-what-role-can-germanys-oil-and-gas-sector-play/a-61545432 — note "politically unthinkable".

There were links in this blog regarding European gas stupidity - sitting on massive reserves doing nothing.

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Впечатлило:
"
5. Greenland
A 2007 report from the US Geological Survey estimated that there could be the equivalent of more than 31 billion barrels of oil sitting under the northeast of the nation.
Earlier this year, the newly elected socialist-led government put climate issues at the centre of its policies. As one of its first moves, it banned all new oil exploration
"
Боятся потепления ! Все мозги отморозило, не иначе.

С другой стороны:
British Prime Minister Truss lifts fracking ban amid energy crisis
https://justthenews.com/world/europe/british-prime-minister-truss-lifts-fracking-ban-amid-energy-crisis
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11192921/Liz-Truss-LIFTS-ban-fracking-despite-fears-cause-earthquakes.html

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Идиоты повсюду. Кто открыто, кто нет, но большинство из них хочет менять систему. Что убивает, это количество неглупых людей со СТЕМ образованием, поддерживающих всё это.

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Видимо, левые подонки выработали пропаганду рассчитанную на западный middle class, вычислили как именно к людям с этой ментальностью подкопаться, как запудрить им мозги. А "неглупыe люди со СТЕМ образованием" если заняты своими делами и не сделали усилия разобраться в предмете, то могут некритично поверить в поверхностно-правдоподобные бредни (вот прямо тут cryinstone пример).
Нас то эта пропаганда не берёт потому что не на нас рассчитана, как вирус для другого вида.

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Да я даже не про climate change, а про намерение уйти от проклятого капитализма, потому что climate change/racism/covid/whatever. Ну такая цель хотя бы должна быть очевидно неприемлемой для нормальных людей (я, кстати, и не про нас, выходцев из СССР). Ан нет.

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