Беспрецедентные засухи из-за глобального потепления

[ny_quant]

Знакомая тема, не так ли? Внезапно:


«‎Голодный камень»‎ на дне Рейна близ немецкого города Вормс. Самая старая надпись на нём сделана во время засухи 1857 года. Позже были добавлены ещё две даты — 1947 и 1959. Также известно, что камень показывался из воды в 2003-м и 2018-м годах.

Т.е. все это уже бывало, и не раз, в том числе и до индустриализации. Но нефть и газ надо срочно запретить, а не то будет ещё хуже и мы все умрём.

Comments

[oldkettle.livejournal.com]

Do you work anywhere close to financial institutions? Are you aware of "pledges" to stop financing FF discovery and exploration? Are you aware that central banks of major countries have added climate change to the list of threats a financial system faces and can at any point force all major banks to stop lending to wrong businesses? Or do you prefer to pretend that this is not happening?

[cryinstone.livejournal.com]

I am not concerned very much. Each institution has its freedom to decide, like it or not. This, unlike the possibility of a nuclear war, does not threaten my survival and I am sure there will be oil, maybe a bit more expensive because there will be a bit less finance, but nowhere near no finance... So what?

[oldkettle.livejournal.com]

Oh wow

"A bit more expensive", right. Australia is relatively well isolated from the current issues, but if you don't care that natural gas that is used a lot for heating, electricity production and manufacturing is more than 10 times more expensive here now than it was before covid... then I certainly give up.

[cryinstone.livejournal.com]

Oh great, 10 times more expensive gas means even more reason switching away from it. And whom to blame? Sorry, not Greens, but Russia mostly.

And no, contrary to your belief, Australia isn't "isolated", we are are part of global market economy, and are paying similar price.

Anything else I can help with? :)

[oldkettle.livejournal.com]

>>> 10 times more expensive gas means even more reason switching away from it.

Switching away from natural gas to what exactly? And do you have any rough idea about the timeframe for a "switch" to a different energy source for 350mln people?

>>> And whom to blame? Sorry, not Greens, but Russia mostly.

Please tell me you actually knew that European gas prices rose massively well before Feb-22.
https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5508665&span=3 . <20 to 40+ by Oct-21, 60+ in Dec, 80+ in Feb before the war.
And yes, it is Greens: all those Labour, lib-dem, you name it clowns (including many Conservatives in the UK and of course Merkel who got her country to depend on a single supplier to such an extent) who fight for everything good vs everything bad. "До основанья, а затем", not stopping for a minute for a cost-benefit analysis. Signing all those pledges without looking at the consequences. And all those clowns are being pressured by "Gretas" of this world who you say don't matter with an overwhelming support of mass media. Hence both "the people" (clearly a very significant share of the population) and politicians think that it's important, more important, than having a stable energy source.

>>> contrary to your belief, Australia isn't "isolated", we are are part of global market economy, and are paying similar price.

Yes, you are a part of the global economy. No, you don't pay similar prices. Like the US, AUS produces a lot of its own energy and as a result your prices rose way less. It seems 3 times over was the peak taking about 3.5 as the baseline during normal times. Proof:
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=natural-gas&months=60¤cy=aud
Plus the extra earnings generate at least some tax income. Moreover, NG has a much smaller share of the AUS energy mix than in Europe, hence overall it's a much smaller problem for you, because neither coal nor oil went up to that extent. I am not saying your prices are as low as ever, I am saying you seem to have no idea how bad things are here.

>>> Anything else I can help with? :)

I doubt it. But maybe you will be willing to actually review the evidence.

[cryinstone.livejournal.com]

1. When COVID lockdowns were eased, the gas price started to go up, because the demand returned. But the "massive" spike has occured after the invasion of Ukraine.

2. Since the bottom of the COVID, the Australian gas become "only" 5 times more expensive, and European has become 10 times.

The difference between 5 times and 10 times is not so much because "we produce gas" - it's a free market, baby, and our gas goes to the highest bidder most often than not in Asia, but because Europe is blackmailed by Russia, which creates artificial supply disruption. Europe has relied on cheap gas from the Russian pipeline, the LNG is considerably more expensive.