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ny_quanthttp://www.tgdaily.com/general-sciences-features/84401-report-global-temperatures-to-rise-at-least-4-c-by-2100
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
К сожалению, не сообщается помог ли этот научный прорыв объяснить отсутствие потепление за последние 15 лет.
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
К сожалению, не сообщается помог ли этот научный прорыв объяснить отсутствие потепление за последние 15 лет.
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no subject
Date: 2014-01-07 07:01 pm (UTC)http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/12/climate-models-wildly-overestimated-global-warming-study-finds/
That’s the upshot of a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change that compared 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming. Out of 117 predictions, the study’s author told FoxNews.com, three were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated the amount of warming
no subject
Date: 2014-01-07 10:56 pm (UTC)В этом смысле заслуживала доверия группа, опубликовавшая результаты около года назад, проработав с данными оголо двух лет. Но их вывод был "за последние 100 лет на Земле несклько потеплело". Модели же будущего я не думаю что сделаны так же хорошо.
no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 03:18 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 05:25 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 01:07 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 05:27 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 07:48 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 08:32 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 09:47 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-08 01:19 am (UTC)Это тоже неверно. Такого предположения не делается.