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ny_quanthttp://www.tgdaily.com/general-sciences-features/84401-report-global-temperatures-to-rise-at-least-4-c-by-2100
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
К сожалению, не сообщается помог ли этот научный прорыв объяснить отсутствие потепление за последние 15 лет.
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
К сожалению, не сообщается помог ли этот научный прорыв объяснить отсутствие потепление за последние 15 лет.
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no subject
Date: 2014-01-07 06:57 pm (UTC)http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf
их средная оценка, как я понимаю, была довольной узкой
"the average simulated trend of 0.21 ± 0.03 °C per decade"
(реально было намного меньше, "For this period, the observed trend of 0.05 ± 0.08 °C ")
Но на графике 2b видно то, что0 я имел ввиду,
регион "95% уверенности" простирается где-то от 0.07 до 0.4С,
слегка касаясь внизу реальных значений (0.05-0.07)
еще интересны графики C и D:
"c, d , 20-year (c) and 15-year (d)
p values on trend differences between the simulations and
observations for assumption (1) (purple curves), or assumption (2) (green curves). The horizontal dashed
lines indicate the threshold below which we reject the null hypothesis."
интересно, имеют ли они ввиду, что данные 2000+ годов фактически опровергают гипотезу?
(я эту статистику и p-value не очень знаю)
no subject
Date: 2014-01-09 03:11 am (UTC)Да, имеют, хотя я и не понимаю откуда берется 500 лет. У меня получилось примерно 190.