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ny_quanthttp://www.tgdaily.com/general-sciences-features/84401-report-global-temperatures-to-rise-at-least-4-c-by-2100
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
К сожалению, не сообщается помог ли этот научный прорыв объяснить отсутствие потепление за последние 15 лет.
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
К сожалению, не сообщается помог ли этот научный прорыв объяснить отсутствие потепление за последние 15 лет.
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no subject
Date: 2014-01-05 05:58 am (UTC)не то, что некоторые, которые начали сомневаться с своих моделях (по результатам этих 15 лет),
тоже, впрочем, с конкретными цифрами, кажется, я где-то видел: "Похоже, мы на 40% преувеличили парниковость углекислого газа" (ага, именно на 40%, не больше, и не меньше, но хорошо хоть кто-то может ошибку признать)
no subject
Date: 2014-01-05 04:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-06 05:22 am (UTC)а это был, скорее всего, ответ одного из ученых какому-нибудь CNN-у, на вопрос: "почему ваши модели не то предсказали"
что-то типа, "Профессор Х сказал, что мол, похоже, мы преувеличили парниковый эффект СО2 на 40%"
может, нагуглю что, но пока только это нашел:
What they say:
‘There is medium confidence that this difference between models and observations is to a substantial degree caused by unpredictable climate variability, with possible contributions from inadequacies in the solar, volcanic, and aerosol forcings used by the models and, in some models, from too strong a response to increasing greenhouse-gas forcing.’
What this means:
The IPCC knows the pause is real, but has no idea what is causing it. It could be natural climate variability, the sun, volcanoes – and crucially, that the computers have been allowed to give too much weight to the effect carbon dioxide emissions (greenhouse gases) have on temperature change.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Worlds-climate-scientists-confess-Global-warming-just-QUARTER-thought--computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html#ixzz2paoPHs2U
no subject
Date: 2014-01-07 02:22 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-01-07 05:33 am (UTC)значит, я не "почти ничего" не нашел, а "совсем ничего"