Quantum Winter Is Coming

[ny_quant]

"The most likely scenario (call it “Quantum Winter”) quantum computing devices remain noisy and never scale to a meaningful quantum advantage… After a tremendous amount of public and private monies are spent pursuing quantum technologies, businesses in the field are limited to research applications or simply fail, and career paths wither."

“The number of known quantum algorithms, which promise advantage over classical computation, is just a few (and none of them will "solve global warming" for sure). More importantly, exactly zero such algorithms have been demonstrated in practice so far and the gap between what’s needed to realize them and the currently available hardware is huge, and it's not just a question of numbers. There are qualitative challenges with scaling up, which will likely take decades to resolve (if ever).”

“As more money flowed [into quantum computing], the field grew, and it became progressively more tempting for scientists to oversell their results… After a few years of this, a highly exaggerated perspective on the promise of quantum computing reached the mainstream, leading to… the formation of a classical bubble.”

Comments

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

I only agree partially. This is definitely true for systems like Autopilot.

But speech recognition and translation work pretty well broadly -- for example, you can turn on the close caption option in Zoom and it does a decent job most of the time.

[ak-47.livejournal.com]

it does a decent job most of the time

На мой взгляд это всё ещё слишком слабо. Много ошибок и слишком чувствительно к малейшим помехам. У меня прошлый телефон был Google Pixel с их хвалёным AI прямо в чипе. Мы дома с детьми баловались — посмотреть на что способен. Через 10 минут стало скучно потому что очень средненько.

Хороший тест на распознавание речи/звуков это полностью автоматическое производство субтитров для глухих к фильмам, например. Включая разные описания происходящего: "[🎵 uplifting music 🎵]", ''[pants heavily]" etc..

Удобное позиционирование на экране для чтения — следующая планка.

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

It is not perfect, but good enough for many applications, e.g., captioning talks or voice commands. That was certainly not possible 15 years ago.