![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ny_quantАкции наверх, а нефть, газ и палладий вниз. Охренеть.
Чтоб 2 раза не вставать, Брент Доннелли поделился своим способом понимания рыночной ситуации. А я с вами. Его вчерашний сигнал закрывать короткие позиции оказался правильным.
Update. Я вот и подоспел свежий Коланович, причем рассуждающий в тех же терминах.
Time Is Right to Buy Growth and Value Stocks
“Both sentiment and positioning are now too bearish,” Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan wrote in a note Tuesday. They anticipate that a near-term rally is likely, particularly in small-cap and high-beta stocks, and suggests that investors construct a “barbell portfolio” of growth stocks including tech, biotech and innovation, alongside value stocks like metals and mining.
“This is rarely the case and currently possible due to a specific confluence of macro factors such as the commodity supercycle, divergent monetary policy, and very large selloff in high-beta and growth stocks (domestic and international) in the first quarter,” the strategists wrote in a note to clients. “There are growth stocks that sold off sufficiently, and there are value stocks that are now also growth.”
Morgan Stanley and BofA не согласны. Голдманы оценивают шансы рецессии в 35%. А мы с вами нервно курим в углу.
Чтоб 2 раза не вставать, Брент Доннелли поделился своим способом понимания рыночной ситуации. А я с вами. Его вчерашний сигнал закрывать короткие позиции оказался правильным.
Update. Я вот и подоспел свежий Коланович, причем рассуждающий в тех же терминах.
Time Is Right to Buy Growth and Value Stocks
“Both sentiment and positioning are now too bearish,” Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan wrote in a note Tuesday. They anticipate that a near-term rally is likely, particularly in small-cap and high-beta stocks, and suggests that investors construct a “barbell portfolio” of growth stocks including tech, biotech and innovation, alongside value stocks like metals and mining.
“This is rarely the case and currently possible due to a specific confluence of macro factors such as the commodity supercycle, divergent monetary policy, and very large selloff in high-beta and growth stocks (domestic and international) in the first quarter,” the strategists wrote in a note to clients. “There are growth stocks that sold off sufficiently, and there are value stocks that are now also growth.”
Morgan Stanley and BofA не согласны. Голдманы оценивают шансы рецессии в 35%. А мы с вами нервно курим в углу.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2022-04-19 06:20 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2022-04-21 07:28 am (UTC)Time Is Right to Buy Growth and Value Stocks
“Both sentiment and positioning are now too bearish,” Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan wrote
Голдманы оценивают шансы рецессии в 35%.
"
Есть ли тут противоречие ?
Может сейчас надо Buy, а рецессия потом, и перед ней продать. Или 35% рецессия, а 65% бум, надо Buy ?
no subject
Date: 2022-04-21 03:09 pm (UTC)