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Последнее китайское предупреждение
Apr. 6th, 2026 11:57 am1. Очередной ультиматум истекает завтра, но на рынках перекур. Видимо, ожидается, что Трамп так и будет ругаться и топать ножками, но никаких красных черт не пересечет. Чем сильнее мы ударим по промышленной инфраструктуре Ирана, тем меньше им останется терять в дальнейшем и тем меньше смысла им капитулировать. Пока что Иран отвечает ударом на ударом и не видно никаких признаков изменения этой стратегии, сколько не повторяй «fuck» and "Allah".
Тем временем истончаются запасы нефтепродуктов, в частности авиационнго керосина, которого осталось примерно на месяц, плюс-минус туда сюда, в разных странах немного по-разному. Цены на нефтепродукты в Европе уже чуть ли не удвоились. Каким образом это может не привести к тяжелым последствиям для экономики я не понимаю. Неужели все рассчитывают на то, что за оставшиеся недели удастся как-то договориться и открыть пролив?
Один умный человек думает, что Трамп договорится с Ираном о том чтобы делить мзду с танкеров за проход пролива. С точки зрения экономики и рынков это был бы хороший вариант. Иран и США постепенно бы получили компенсацию за ущерб и расходы. Вот только цели войны достигнуты не будут, так что я очень сомневаюсь.
Не знаю как сделать кат в новом редакторе, хотел спрятать то что дальше, но не могу.
2. Также подходят к концы наши запасы высокоточных бомб и ракет. Расходуются они быстро, а производятся очень медленно. Приведу несколько цитат из статьи на Блумберге.
The US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
After the moves, only about 425 JASSM-ER out of a prewar inventory of 2,300 will remain available for the rest of the globe.
The US has used large numbers of long-range weapons like JASSM-ER for strikes, limiting the risk to service members but reducing stocks of systems meant for more capable adversaries such as China.
The order to pull the $1.5 million weapon from Pacific stockpiles was issued at the end of March, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.
US operations through the first four weeks of the war consumed more than 1,000 JASSM-ERs, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. US aircraft also fired 47 during the raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the person said.
The US has allocated funds to buy more than 6,200 JASSMs since 2009, and production of the baseline JASSM for US supplies ended about 10 years ago.
Lockheed Martin Corp.’s scheduled production rate for 2026 is 396 of the longer-range version, although as many as 860 can be manufactured if the line, which also produces the LRASM anti-ship missile, is fully geared toward JASSMs.
While Lockheed Martin makes about 650 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors per year, the company signed an agreement in January to make 2,000 a year by 2030. The company also makes 96 THAAD interceptors per year, but reached a separate deal to increase that number to 400.
The US has fired hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles during the attack on Iran. There were about 4,000 Tomahawks in US stockpiles before the war — including older models and anti-ship variants. RTX Corp. produced about 100 new missiles in 2025, while about 240 older models were upgraded to the latest Block V standard.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-deploys-bulk-of-stealthy-long-range-missile-for-iran-war
Месяц назад писали вот что.
The US has a massive stock of easy-to-produce, air-dropped precision bombs — as President Donald Trump implied in a social media post this week — but has been using costly and less-numerous standoff weapons in its attacks on Iran, sapping supplies meant for more formidable enemies.
For instance: Opening salvos of the war included BGM-109 Tomahawks, slow but accurate cruise missiles with a range of more than 1,000 miles designed to hit targets deep in well defended territory.
The US and its partner nations have burned through huge numbers of air defense weapons, including Patriot PAC-3, THAAD and SM-3 Block IIA interceptors. SM-3s are by far the most expensive of the three, running about $14 million each.
The air-defense systems, in particular, are seen as a crucial issue, with some estimates predicting missiles will run dangerously low at current rates in a matter of days or weeks.
If the US can achieve complete air supremacy, with no fear of surface-to-air missiles, it can switch to using more $25,000 JDAMs and other guided bombs. That puts far less strain on inventories, which contain more than 500,000 JDAM kits
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/us-use-of-costly-weapons-against-iran-tests-limits-of-inventory
Тем временем истончаются запасы нефтепродуктов, в частности авиационнго керосина, которого осталось примерно на месяц, плюс-минус туда сюда, в разных странах немного по-разному. Цены на нефтепродукты в Европе уже чуть ли не удвоились. Каким образом это может не привести к тяжелым последствиям для экономики я не понимаю. Неужели все рассчитывают на то, что за оставшиеся недели удастся как-то договориться и открыть пролив?
Один умный человек думает, что Трамп договорится с Ираном о том чтобы делить мзду с танкеров за проход пролива. С точки зрения экономики и рынков это был бы хороший вариант. Иран и США постепенно бы получили компенсацию за ущерб и расходы. Вот только цели войны достигнуты не будут, так что я очень сомневаюсь.
Не знаю как сделать кат в новом редакторе, хотел спрятать то что дальше, но не могу.
2. Также подходят к концы наши запасы высокоточных бомб и ракет. Расходуются они быстро, а производятся очень медленно. Приведу несколько цитат из статьи на Блумберге.
The US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
After the moves, only about 425 JASSM-ER out of a prewar inventory of 2,300 will remain available for the rest of the globe.
The US has used large numbers of long-range weapons like JASSM-ER for strikes, limiting the risk to service members but reducing stocks of systems meant for more capable adversaries such as China.
The order to pull the $1.5 million weapon from Pacific stockpiles was issued at the end of March, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.
US operations through the first four weeks of the war consumed more than 1,000 JASSM-ERs, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. US aircraft also fired 47 during the raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the person said.
The US has allocated funds to buy more than 6,200 JASSMs since 2009, and production of the baseline JASSM for US supplies ended about 10 years ago.
Lockheed Martin Corp.’s scheduled production rate for 2026 is 396 of the longer-range version, although as many as 860 can be manufactured if the line, which also produces the LRASM anti-ship missile, is fully geared toward JASSMs.
While Lockheed Martin makes about 650 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors per year, the company signed an agreement in January to make 2,000 a year by 2030. The company also makes 96 THAAD interceptors per year, but reached a separate deal to increase that number to 400.
The US has fired hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles during the attack on Iran. There were about 4,000 Tomahawks in US stockpiles before the war — including older models and anti-ship variants. RTX Corp. produced about 100 new missiles in 2025, while about 240 older models were upgraded to the latest Block V standard.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-deploys-bulk-of-stealthy-long-range-missile-for-iran-war
Месяц назад писали вот что.
The US has a massive stock of easy-to-produce, air-dropped precision bombs — as President Donald Trump implied in a social media post this week — but has been using costly and less-numerous standoff weapons in its attacks on Iran, sapping supplies meant for more formidable enemies.
For instance: Opening salvos of the war included BGM-109 Tomahawks, slow but accurate cruise missiles with a range of more than 1,000 miles designed to hit targets deep in well defended territory.
The US and its partner nations have burned through huge numbers of air defense weapons, including Patriot PAC-3, THAAD and SM-3 Block IIA interceptors. SM-3s are by far the most expensive of the three, running about $14 million each.
The air-defense systems, in particular, are seen as a crucial issue, with some estimates predicting missiles will run dangerously low at current rates in a matter of days or weeks.
If the US can achieve complete air supremacy, with no fear of surface-to-air missiles, it can switch to using more $25,000 JDAMs and other guided bombs. That puts far less strain on inventories, which contain more than 500,000 JDAM kits
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/us-use-of-costly-weapons-against-iran-tests-limits-of-inventory
