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Консенсус в разгаре
Mar. 9th, 2012 01:06 pmThe results of the American Meteorological Society member survey on global warming are now available.
Итак, опрос не среди черт знает кого, а среди специалистов. Интересно сравнить с 97% консенсуса, о которых так часто говорят большевики. Итак, что же интересного мы имеем с гуся?
1. С ответом озаботились всего 26% членов. Возможно, конечно, что остальные не ответили от занятости, но, по-моему, резонно предположить, что они в среднем не так уж взволнованы.
2. A very large majority of respondents (89%) indicated that global warming is happening; in contrast few indicated it isn’t happening (4%) or that they “don’t know” (7%). Respondents who indicated that global warming is happening were asked their views about its primary causes: a large majority indicated that human activity (59%), or human activity and natural causes in more or less equal amounts (11%), were the primary causes. Relatively few respondents indicated that the warning is caused primarily by natural causes (6%), although a substantial minority (23%) indicated they don't believe enough is yet known to determine the degree of human or natural causation.
3. A large majority of respondents who indicated that global warming is happening indicated that if nothing is done to address it, over the next 100 years it will be very harmful (38%) or somewhat harmful (38%) to people and society; a small minority of respondents indicated that the harms and benefits will be approximately equal (12%), or that the warming will be beneficial on the whole (2.4%). Among those respondents who indicated the warming would be harmful, only a small minority indicated that all (2%) or a large amount (20%) of the harms can be prevented through mitigation and adaptation measures; the more common responses were that a moderate amount (46%) or small amount (22%) of the harm can be prevented.
4. All respondents were asked how worried they are about global warming: a large majority indicated that they were very worried (30%) or somewhat worried (42%), while a minority indicated they were not very worried (20%) or not at all worried (8%).
5. Only 59% of the respondents indicated that 81-100% of climate scientists think that human-caused gloval warming is happening, while 20% of respondents reporter the number to be between 61-80%.
Получается, что никакого единодушия в рядах на самом деле и близко нет. Более того, можно вполне резонно предположить, что уклонившиеся от ответа 3/4 с большей вероятностью присоединятся к "меньшинству".
И все бы это было ничего если б нам не рассказывали о том, что "the science is settled".
Итак, опрос не среди черт знает кого, а среди специалистов. Интересно сравнить с 97% консенсуса, о которых так часто говорят большевики. Итак, что же интересного мы имеем с гуся?
1. С ответом озаботились всего 26% членов. Возможно, конечно, что остальные не ответили от занятости, но, по-моему, резонно предположить, что они в среднем не так уж взволнованы.
2. A very large majority of respondents (89%) indicated that global warming is happening; in contrast few indicated it isn’t happening (4%) or that they “don’t know” (7%). Respondents who indicated that global warming is happening were asked their views about its primary causes: a large majority indicated that human activity (59%), or human activity and natural causes in more or less equal amounts (11%), were the primary causes. Relatively few respondents indicated that the warning is caused primarily by natural causes (6%), although a substantial minority (23%) indicated they don't believe enough is yet known to determine the degree of human or natural causation.
3. A large majority of respondents who indicated that global warming is happening indicated that if nothing is done to address it, over the next 100 years it will be very harmful (38%) or somewhat harmful (38%) to people and society; a small minority of respondents indicated that the harms and benefits will be approximately equal (12%), or that the warming will be beneficial on the whole (2.4%). Among those respondents who indicated the warming would be harmful, only a small minority indicated that all (2%) or a large amount (20%) of the harms can be prevented through mitigation and adaptation measures; the more common responses were that a moderate amount (46%) or small amount (22%) of the harm can be prevented.
4. All respondents were asked how worried they are about global warming: a large majority indicated that they were very worried (30%) or somewhat worried (42%), while a minority indicated they were not very worried (20%) or not at all worried (8%).
5. Only 59% of the respondents indicated that 81-100% of climate scientists think that human-caused gloval warming is happening, while 20% of respondents reporter the number to be between 61-80%.
Получается, что никакого единодушия в рядах на самом деле и близко нет. Более того, можно вполне резонно предположить, что уклонившиеся от ответа 3/4 с большей вероятностью присоединятся к "меньшинству".
И все бы это было ничего если б нам не рассказывали о том, что "the science is settled".
