Экономический ущерб от потепления
Aug. 2nd, 2023 02:05 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ny_quantВсе кто читают центральные газеты знают, что до того как мы все умрем от жары, сначала будет обнищание и разруха. Я подумал, что читателям будет интересно узнать, что об этом думает правительство США на самом деле. Чтобы не быть голословным, приведу цитату и картинку из работы COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS & OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET (pdf). Spoiler alert: ущерб оценивается примерно в 1%.
Figure 1 above shows the estimated U.S. GDP response reported by each study and an aggregate across these 12 studies, plotted as a function of changes in global mean surface temperature relative to the 1851–1900 average. For each study, we plot all reported damages and corresponding temperatures and fit a smooth, continuous function through these values. All studies report estimates of damages throughout the range of the x-axis in Figure 1. To calculate our aggregate estimate of the relationship between the level of climate change and the change in U.S. output over time, we generate a large number of equally spaced points along each of these damage functions and fit a penalized spline through the complete set of these points. The aggregate function is shown with a solid black line in Figure 1 above.
Чтоб 2 раза не вставать, Ломборг пишет, что ООН дает оценку в 3% хотя я сам эту цитату не нашел:
Scenarios set out under the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) show human welfare will likely increase to 450% of today's welfare over the 21st century. Climate damages will reduce this welfare increase to 434%.
Climate policies also have costs that often vastly outweigh their climate benefits. The Paris Agreement, if fully implemented, will cost $819–$1,890 billion per year in 2030, yet will reduce emissions by just 1% of what is needed to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Each dollar spent on Paris will likely produce climate benefits worth 11¢.
Figure 1 above shows the estimated U.S. GDP response reported by each study and an aggregate across these 12 studies, plotted as a function of changes in global mean surface temperature relative to the 1851–1900 average. For each study, we plot all reported damages and corresponding temperatures and fit a smooth, continuous function through these values. All studies report estimates of damages throughout the range of the x-axis in Figure 1. To calculate our aggregate estimate of the relationship between the level of climate change and the change in U.S. output over time, we generate a large number of equally spaced points along each of these damage functions and fit a penalized spline through the complete set of these points. The aggregate function is shown with a solid black line in Figure 1 above.
Чтоб 2 раза не вставать, Ломборг пишет, что ООН дает оценку в 3% хотя я сам эту цитату не нашел:
Scenarios set out under the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) show human welfare will likely increase to 450% of today's welfare over the 21st century. Climate damages will reduce this welfare increase to 434%.
Climate policies also have costs that often vastly outweigh their climate benefits. The Paris Agreement, if fully implemented, will cost $819–$1,890 billion per year in 2030, yet will reduce emissions by just 1% of what is needed to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Each dollar spent on Paris will likely produce climate benefits worth 11¢.
